PUBLICACIONES

STATISTICS HEAVY VEHICLES, OCTOBER 2008
Production	Sale of Diesel Engines	Sale Domestic Market	Sale Export Market

OCTOBER BULLETIN 2008

Transportation Industry:  Generalized decrease
Production -14.8%; domestic sales - 40.2%, greatest decrease since January of 1996 and exportation -7.6%

Production:

• There was a total in assembly during the month of October of this year of 6,610 units, thereby showing a negative difference in relation to the same month of a year ago which in absolute numbers translates to 1,149 vehicles. In percentage terms, the decrease was of 14.8%.
• Concerning the area of production of the last ten months, this reached 69,231 units, that is, 6,847 less vehicles than for the same period of last year; the decrease in this instance is of 9.0%.

Domestic Market:

• A magnitude of a decrease such as this, few times is seen in the industrial sector.  A clear reflection of 40.2% of the critical phase that the demand of transportation is living is somewhat similar to what occurred in January of 1996 when we had a decrease of 45.4%, that is 13.9 years ago.
• The monthly sales were solely 3,153 units which translate into 2,120 less vehicles than October of 2007.
• The figure for accumulated wholesale sales for the January-October period is currently 44,972, the previous means that there are 433 less units than for the same time lapse of last year.
• In this manner the tendency is reverted; this was already considered a threat.  Now the decrease is of 0.9%.    

Exportation Market:

• The decrease in the domestic wholesale sales during October was such that the export sales were greater; 3,596 units were shipped.
• This volume means a decrease of 7.6% when compared to the tenth month of 2007.
• The accumulated figure of this variable is situated at 30,460 vehicles shipped to other markets, representing 3,676 less vehicles than for the same period of last year.
• The current decrease in the accumulated figures was set a 10.8%.

Total Production:

To be able to reverse the tendency in the two remaining months is practically impossible.  So therefore, it is a fact that the production of units for this year shall be negative, inclusively, it is very probable that the decrease that we reported in October may be greater, due to the fact, that now the negative tendency for the domestic market is now being incorporated, in this last part, taking into consideration that the final two months seems to show low sales in the national market.

It is important and especially when viewing this situation to point out that the importation action of used units in the NAFTA frame shall come to deteriorate our market for 2009. In this manner, the uncertainness and a complicated scan for the sector is not limited to only 2008.

Referring back to the first, in the event of maintaining an accumulated decrease to October, the year shall close with a production of approximately 78.5 thousand units, however, if it is greater, that is, that it reaches a decrease of 12.0%, the annual figure shall be established at 76.0 thousand. The beforementioned in no manner means that we can rule out a greater decrease.

On the other hand, we should not forget 2007 when we had a negative result when a decrement was registered of 6.4%; this means that the results reveal a more critical situation for 2008.

The negative tendency of the production of transportation units is living a short interruption in the lapse of these ten months of this year when compared to 2007, which only operates for June and July, and it later retakes the negative tendency, even more profoundly, as we can observe for the quarter of August-October.

 At two months to the conclusion of 2008, the results in the production at the segment level are: Cargo trucks fall by 18.5%; Truck tractors by 5.9% and Construction by 14.4%. With an opposite tendency, we have Chassis for Passenger Units grew by 23.2% and buses by 44.5%.

Monthly Figures for Transportation Units
(units)

Domestic Market Sales:

Since April of 2005 there had not been reported a monthly figure inferior to the one that is now reported; this is a reflection of the gravity of the contraction in the demand of transportation units during October. The decrease is of 40.2% in the total and the 62.7% in truck tractors with a fifth wheel may be the beginning of a tendency of profound decrease in our sector; we sincerely hope we are not correct.

Notwithstanding the panorama of the tenth month, by segments, the behavior in the accumulated is as follows: A growth of 8.7% in Cargo Trucks; of 13.5% in Chassis for Passenger Units; of 58.6% for buses; decreases are still evident in truck tractors with 16.4% and in Construction vehicles with 56.3%.

Monthly Figures for Transportation Units
(units)

Exportation Market Sales:

The volume of exports corresponding to this current October is the lowest of the months graphed, that by the way, the same is happening in the two variables commented previously.  The 3,596 units shipped to other markets means a decrease of 7.6% for the month.

For that concerning the exportation of the previous ten months, we have increases of 154.4% en Chassis for Passenger Units, of 6.1% in Truck tractors, and 30.1% in Construction vehicles. However, the segment that reports the greatest decrease in volume is that of Cargo trucks with 27.5%.

Monthly Figures for Transportation Units
(units)

By Irla Espinosa López. Director of Economic Studies November 18, 2008